Crypto Withdrawal Risk Calculator
Transaction Risk Assessment
Based on China's strict crypto regulations, this calculator estimates the likelihood of your transaction being flagged by Chinese banks. Chinese authorities have blocked over $1.5 billion in crypto-related transactions since 2021.
Trying to turn your Bitcoin or Ethereum into cash through a Chinese bank? It won’t work. Not because the system is slow or broken - but because it’s designed to block you.
China’s Crypto Ban Is Absolute - And Banks Are Enforcers
Since September 2021, Chinese banks have been legally forbidden from handling any cryptocurrency transactions. That includes deposits, withdrawals, exchanges, or even processing payments tied to crypto wallets. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC), along with nine other government agencies, declared all crypto-to-fiat conversions as illegal financial activities. This isn’t a gray area. It’s a hard stop. Banks don’t get to choose whether to comply. They’re required by law to shut down any account linked to crypto activity. If you try to send money from a crypto exchange to your ICBC or China Construction Bank account, the system will flag it - and freeze your funds before the transfer even finishes.How Banks Detect Crypto Transactions
Chinese banks don’t rely on guesswork. They use advanced systems trained to spot crypto patterns. Here’s what triggers a red flag:- Transfers to or from wallet addresses on China’s official blacklist of 14,273 known crypto addresses
- Money moving quickly between multiple accounts - a classic sign of crypto laundering
- Transactions originating from IP addresses tied to banned exchanges like Binance or OKEx
- Small, frequent deposits that add up to large sums - often used to avoid detection thresholds
- Cash deposits over ¥200,000 ($27,500) with no clear business purpose
What Happens When You Get Caught
If your account gets flagged, here’s what follows:- Your account is frozen within hours - no warning, no explanation.
- Bank staff investigate for 72 hours. In 89% of cases, the freeze lasts over 30 days.
- If they confirm crypto ties, the account stays locked indefinitely.
- The bank reports the case to China’s Anti-Money Laundering Monitoring and Analysis Center (CAMLMAC) and the PBoC within 24 hours.
Real Cases: Accounts Frozen, Millions Seized
In April 2025, the Agricultural Bank of China froze 217 accounts in Guangdong Province after spotting patterns linked to offshore crypto exchanges. Investigators traced the money back to users trying to cash out crypto profits. In the first half of 2025 alone, Chinese authorities shut down 127 cross-border crypto networks. They froze ¥2.1 billion ($290 million) in assets tied to these operations. These aren’t rare incidents. They’re routine. Even if you think you’re being clever - using peer-to-peer trades, gift cards, or third-party intermediaries - banks are trained to spot the footprints. Money laundering networks that move crypto into cash are being dismantled at an increasing pace.
Why This Ban Exists - And Why It Won’t End Soon
China’s goal isn’t just to stop gambling or speculation. It’s about control. The government sees cryptocurrency as a threat to its monetary sovereignty. Stablecoins, in particular, are seen as dangerous tools that could bypass capital controls and undermine the digital yuan. The PBoC has spent billions building its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) - the digital yuan. It’s designed to be traceable, controllable, and fully integrated into the state’s financial system. Crypto, by contrast, is anonymous, decentralized, and outside government reach. S&P Global projects China’s crypto ban will remain in place until at least 2027. The only possible shift? If the digital yuan reaches 30% of retail payments - a milestone not expected before 2028.What About Hong Kong?
Hong Kong is a different story. In August 2025, it launched a licensing regime for stablecoins - making it one of the few places in the world with legal, regulated crypto banking. But here’s the catch: Mainland Chinese banks are strictly forbidden from doing business with Hong Kong’s regulated crypto platforms. Any transfer over HK$50,000 ($6,400) to a Hong Kong account is now flagged and reported to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. So even if you try to move your crypto to Hong Kong first, then cash out, the trail leads back to you. The system is designed to catch you - no matter the route.Can You Even Own Crypto in China?
Yes - but only privately. It’s not illegal to hold Bitcoin or Ethereum in a personal wallet. You can buy it on peer-to-peer platforms, store it on a hardware device, or keep it on an offshore exchange. But if you try to turn it into yuan through a bank? That’s where the law kicks in. The government doesn’t care if you own crypto. It only cares if you try to convert it into the national currency.
What Are People Doing Instead?
With formal channels closed, many turn to informal networks - known as CMLNs (crypto money laundering networks). These operate through trusted contacts, underground exchanges, and cash couriers. Some use gift cards, prepaid cards, or even physical goods to move value. FinCEN estimates Chinese citizens moved $8.2 billion through these informal channels in 2024 - up from $5.7 billion in 2023. It’s risky, slow, and expensive - but it’s the only way left.What Should You Do If You’re in China?
If you hold crypto and live in mainland China:- Do not attempt to withdraw to a Chinese bank account.
- Do not use your real name or ID on peer-to-peer platforms linked to bank transfers.
- Do not assume offshore exchanges are safe - Chinese banks monitor transaction patterns, not just destinations.
- Consider holding crypto as a long-term asset, not a cash source.
The Bigger Picture
China’s crypto ban isn’t just about finance. It’s about control. The government wants its citizens to use the digital yuan - not decentralized alternatives. It wants to track every yuan, every transaction, every movement of value. While crypto markets elsewhere are expanding, China is building a financial system that leaves no room for alternatives. The banks aren’t resisting. They’re leading the charge. You can still hold crypto in China. But turning it into cash? That door is welded shut - and the key is held by the state.Can I legally hold cryptocurrency in China?
Yes, it’s not illegal to hold cryptocurrency in China. You can buy, store, or transfer crypto using personal wallets or offshore exchanges. However, converting it into yuan through a bank or payment platform is strictly prohibited. The law targets transactions - not possession.
What happens if I try to withdraw crypto to my Chinese bank account?
Your account will likely be frozen within hours. Banks use automated systems to detect crypto-related transfers - like payments to known exchange wallets or unusual transaction patterns. Once flagged, your funds are held for at least 72 hours, and often for over 30 days. In most cases, you won’t get your money back without a legal appeal - and even then, success is rare.
Can I use Hong Kong banks to cash out my crypto if I live in mainland China?
Technically, Hong Kong allows regulated crypto-to-fiat conversions. But mainland Chinese banks are banned from cooperating with Hong Kong’s crypto platforms. Any transfer over HK$50,000 ($6,400) to a Hong Kong account is automatically flagged and reported to Chinese authorities. Even if you cash out in Hong Kong, the trail leads back to your mainland bank account - and you’ll face scrutiny.
Are there any legal ways to convert crypto to yuan in China?
No. All formal channels - banks, payment apps like Alipay or WeChat Pay, and licensed exchanges - are prohibited from handling crypto-to-fiat transactions. The only options left are informal networks, which carry high risk, fees, and legal exposure. There is no government-sanctioned path to cash out crypto in mainland China.
Do Chinese banks report crypto activity to the government?
Yes. Banks are legally required to report all suspected crypto-related transactions to the China Anti-Money Laundering Monitoring and Analysis Center (CAMLMAC) and the People’s Bank of China within 24 hours. This includes account freezes, transaction patterns, and wallet addresses. There is no privacy protection for crypto activity - it’s treated as a regulatory violation.
Can I get my frozen bank account back after a crypto withdrawal attempt?
It’s extremely difficult. Banks freeze accounts for 72 hours for initial review, but 89% of crypto-linked accounts remain restricted for over 30 days. To get funds released, you’d need to prove the money came from a legal source - which is nearly impossible if it originated from crypto. Most people never get their money back, and some face further investigation by financial regulators.
Why does China ban crypto but allow the digital yuan?
The digital yuan is a state-controlled digital currency. Every transaction is tracked, and the government can limit how it’s used. Crypto, by contrast, is decentralized, anonymous, and outside state control. China doesn’t want competition for its monetary system. The digital yuan is a tool for surveillance and control - crypto is a threat to it.
How much money have Chinese banks frozen due to crypto activity?
In the first half of 2025 alone, Chinese authorities froze approximately ¥2.1 billion ($290 million) in assets linked to crypto-to-fiat transactions. This includes over 3,800 bank accounts shut down across 127 dismantled cross-border networks. The total amount frozen since 2021 is estimated to exceed $1.5 billion.
Is crypto mining still banned in China?
Yes. Crypto mining was banned in 2021 and remains illegal. All mining operations were shut down by mid-2021. While some former Chinese mining firms relocated to countries like Kazakhstan and the U.S., mining within mainland China is still prohibited and actively enforced.
Will China ever allow crypto-to-fiat withdrawals again?
Not anytime soon. S&P Global projects the ban will last until at least 2027. The only scenario where it might change is if the digital yuan becomes the dominant form of retail payment - expected no earlier than 2028. Until then, the government sees crypto as a threat to its financial control - and has no intention of backing down.